Abacus Data Poll: How Would You Vote Tomorrow?
This week we completed another national survey of 1,500 Canadian adults. With less than 100 days to go before Canadians select their next parliament, we updated our political tracking. Here’s what we found:
If an election was held at the time of the survey, the Liberals and Conservatives would each get 32% of committed voter support, followed by the NDP at 16%, the Greens at 11%, and the BQ at 4%. All these numbers are virtually unchanged since our last survey at the end of June.
Regionally, the Conservatives hold big leads in the Prairies (30 points in AB and 21 points in SK/MB) while the Liberals have comfortable leads in Quebec (17 points) and Atlantic Canada (9 points). Ontario and British Columbia both remain very competitive with the Liberals and Conservatives statistically tied.
The NDP finds itself without a region where its support is concentrated with about 17% to 19% in all regions save for Quebec where it trails in fifth place behind the Greens at only 8%. Green Party support is similarly spread out across the country with a higher concentration in BC (especially on Vancouver Island where the Greens are polling at 27% compared with 14% in the rest of the province).
Demographically, the Liberals lead by 4 among women while the Conservatives lead by 4 among men. Women are 7-points more likely to support the NDP than men. They are also 6-points more likely to support the Greens than men.