Re: What Kathleen Wynne Means To The Next Election
Interesting result yesterday for sure. I agree with you that its likely the Liberals will lose the next election. However, I think the election of Wynne as leader will hold off any major shift of progressive votes from the Liberals to the NDP because she will do a much better job of dealing with the Teachers than any of the other leadership candidates, including current Education minister Laurel Broten, who in my opinion has made a mess of the situation. I expect her to be demoted.
Wynne, because of who she is, will appeal to centre-left voters. Her track record is strong and she’s from Toronto, so I expect she will be able to hold the Tories off in the 416 area code.
But, as you say, the baggage of the McGuinty government will plague her in the next election. Liberal MPPs in Ottawa for example, will be in tough if a provincial election is held this spring. Chiarelli and Naqvi will have serious battles on their hands. Two new Liberal candidates in Ottawa South and Ottawa Orleans will also be in a tough situation having to defend a government they had nothing to do with.
Three of four of these ridings have a good chance of going Tory in the next provincial election, especially if an election is held in the spring.
My call for the next Ontario provincial election is a Tory minority government, with the Liberals, NDP and Greens splitting the progressive vote just as they do at the federal level.